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Modeling spatial and temporal variation of drought in rice production

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Climate / Weather / Environment
Hijmans, R.J.; Serraj, R.

We present a preliminary crop growth simulation model-based characterization of the spatial and temporal distribution of drought stress in rice production. The main objectives of this approach are to assist in estimating the potential benefits of drought-tolerant rice varieties, and to help select target areas for evaluation and dissemination of these varieties. The simulation model results provide a simple way to reduce daily weather data to a single or a few indices, to be used as predictors in characterization or data-mining modeling methods. We emphasize the need to refine the simulation modeling methods and to integrate the simulation results with census data and those obtained from studies of farmer behavior in response to drought, and the effect of drought on rice yield in farmers’ fields.