Back to Library

Modelling production risk in small scale subsistence agriculture

Published by:
Document
Download
Publication date
09/08/2006
Number of Pages
17
Language:
English
Type of Publication:
Event Reports
Focus Region:
Asia and the Pacific
Focus Topic:
Agricultural Value Chains / Agri-Businesses
Land / Water / Resource Management
Type of Risk:
Biological & environmental
Managerial & operational
Type of Risk Managment Option:
Risk assessment
Commodity:
Crops
Author
Kristin H. Roll, Atle G. Guttormsen, Frank Asche
Organization
International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference

In this paper we are investigating how production risk may influence the way a risk averse producer like a subsistence farmer chooses optimal input levels. Risk averse producers will take into account both the mean and the variance of output, and therefore we expect them to choose input levels which differ form the optimal input level of risk neutral producers. Production risk is of particular importance in developing countries, since variance in production here may have grave consequences for the farmer and his family. To model the production decision problem under such circumstances we have made use of the fact that production risk can be treated as heteroskedasticity. Our analysis is based on a dataset obtained from a survey on smallholders in the Kilimanjaro region in Tanzania. Since evidence of output risk in inputs is found, we reestimate the mean and variance function using a maximum likelihood estimator, and correct the standard errors to provide valid inference.