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Wheat Outlook – Report from the Economic Research Service

Published by:
Publication date
Number of Pages
Type of Publication:
Working Papers & Briefs
Focus Region:
North America
Focus Topic:
Market / Trade
Type of Risk:
Type of Risk Managment Option:
Risk assessment
USDA - United States Department of Agriculture

World wheat production is projected up 2.1 million tons this month to a near-record 683.3 million, just 1 million tons lower than the all-time high in the 2009/10 marketing year. While world harvested area is left almost unchanged, the already record-high world average wheat yield inched up 0.01 tons per hectare due to increased yields in Kazakhstan and EU-27.

Harvest reports for the EU-27 and Kazakhstan indicate increased production, more than offsetting reduced production prospects for Argentina and several African countries. Kazakhstan’s wheat production for 2011/12 is forecast up 2.0 million tons this month to a record 21.0 million, with the wheat yield exceeding the previous record of 1992/93 by 15 percent. Kazakhstan is the world’s largest landlocked country, with a territory bigger than Western Europe, and borders Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Wheat, predominantly spring varieties, constitutes about 85 percent of the country’s grain production. The harvest is nearly complete in Kazakhstan, and progress reports indicate a remarkably big wheat crop.

Phenomenal weather conditions–high precipitation and moderate temperatures–throughout the growing period generated a huge amount of lower than usual quality wheat, while lack of snow through the beginning of November allowed farmers to complete the harvest. The wheat production forecast for 2011/12 for the world’s largest producer, the EU- 27, is increased 1.2 million tons this month to 137.5 million.