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Monthly Coffee Market Report – ICO

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Working Papers & Briefs
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Market / Trade
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Risk assessment
International Coffee Organization

Coffee prices in October were subject to significant downward corrections in the broader context of the global financial crisis, which is exerting negative pressures on nearly all commodity prices. The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price for October, which marked the beginning of the new coffee year, fell by 9% from 213.04 US cents/lb in September to 193.90. This is the lowest monthly average recorded so far in 2011. Market behavior in October was also characterized by increased price volatility, particularly in the case of Arabicas, reaching 12.4% on the New York futures market.

In terms of market fundamentals, bad weather continued to affect many exporting countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America, where heavy rainfall is likely to have an impact on post?harvest operations. Crop year 2011/12 is under way in all exporting countries. On the basis of the information currently available, total production for crop year 2011/12 is expected to be around 127.4 million bags compared to 133.1 million bags in 2010/11. This report includes some details on estimates of production for crop year 2011/12.