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Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets

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Publication date
02/07/2009
Number of Pages
31
Language:
English
Type of Publication:
Working Papers & Briefs
Focus Region:
Global
Focus Topic:
Market / Trade
Commodity:
Crops
Author
Sylwia Nowak, Jochen Andritzky, Andreas Jobst and Natalia Tamirisa
Organization
IMF

This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility respond to news about macroeconomic fundamentals. As in mature bond markets, macroeconomic surprises in external emerging bond markets are found to affect both conditional returns and volatility, with the effects on volatility being more pronounced and longer lasting than those on prices. Yet the process of information absorption tends to be more drawn out than in mature bond markets. International and regional macroeconomic news is at least as important as local news for both asset valuations and volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets.