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Commodity Price Volatility: The Impact of Commodity Index Traders

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Publication date
27/10/2010
Number of Pages
30
Language:
English
Type of Publication:
Studies
Focus Region:
Global
Focus Topic:
Market / Trade
Nutrition / Food Systems
Type of Risk:
Market-related
Type of Risk Managment Option:
Risk assessment
Commodity:
Crops
Author
Getu Hailu, Alfons Weersink
Organization
Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy and Competitiveness Research Network (CATPRN)

The dramatic rise in crop prices that occurred in the fall of 2006 was the beginning of an unprecedented level of volatility in agricultural markets. For example, corn prices for most of this decade fluctuated within a range of US$0.50 per bushel around an average price in the low US$2 range. However, corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) doubled within a six week period beginning in September 2006 and then doubled again by the spring of 2008 (Figure 1). Corn prices have since fallen back but appear to be fluctuating around a new average price of around US$4 per bushel. There also appears to be much greater price swings than in the past. Similar price spikes occurred in the wheat market (Figure 2) but within a shorter time frame. The recent rise of wheat prices in July 2010 has revived memories of the commodity boom of 2006-2008.