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Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications

Published by:
Online Location
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0074-0
Publication date
21/04/2011
Number of Pages
18
Language:
English
Type of Publication:
Articles & Journals
Focus Region:
Global
Focus Topic:
Climate / Weather / Environment
Market / Trade
Type of Risk:
Weather & Climate related
Market-related
Type of Risk Managment Option:
Risk assessment
Commodity:
Crops
Author
Chi-Chung Chen, Bruce McCarl, Ching-Cheng Chang
Organization
Springer

Climate change will influence yields while sea level rise can inundate
producing lands. The research reported investigates the individual and simultaneous effects of these factors on production, trade and consumption of rice the world’s number one food crop. A global rice trade model is utilized to do this. The results indicate that the combination of yield and sea level effects causes a significant reduction in production and an increase in rice prices which may have important policy implications for food security. Global rice production is reduced by 1.60% to 2.73% while global rice price increases by 7.14% to 12.77%. Sea level rise is particularly a risk factor in Bangladesh, Japan, Taiwan, Egypt, Myanmar and Vietnam. In the face of such developments, adaptation may well be desirable and thus an investigation is done over adaptation options of increased technical progress or trade liberalization with the results showing that both can mitigate such damages.